Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Runoff Analysis

Well the runoff went off with more of a thud than a bang. The only close race was in Houston between incumbent Al Edwards and political newcomer and underdog, Borris Miles. Even in that race, Miles won by nearly 6 points after being behind in early vote.

The real shock of the evening isn’t who won, but how much of a landslide most of these races were.

US Senate nominee Barbara Radnofsky wasn’t on the ballot in Maverick County, and she won with nearly 60% of the total votes. She won 210 counties and tied 3. The weird thing isn’t that Radnofsky lost some counties, but the voter turnout in the areas she lost.
Voter Turnout by County:
Jasper County had 11%
LaSalle had 21%
Limestone had 11%
Matagorda had 16%
Pecos had 18%
Red River had 19%
Terrell had 44%
Upton 15%
Willacy 20%
She only lost in west and east Texas, and I suspect it was Republican voters voting in the Democratic primary to affect the top of the ticket. With only 2% voting statewide, it is odd to see the majority of districts that voted against Radnofsky be Republican leaning in the high teens and low 20’s in turnout.

The Lt Gov race’s breakdowns are not nearly as interesting. Maria Alvarado won in the Rio Grande Valley, El Paso, and San Antonio. I was wrong about Houston, it went Ben Grant, and so did Austin, Dallas Fort Worth and east Texas.

It didn’t matter though, because as Burnt Orange pointed out, most of the states voting occurred in the Valley Alvarado was able to win by way more than the 2 point margin I predicted.

Then there were the House races. Valinda Bolton took Jason Earle down handily and only proved the point that women do well in HD 47. Bolton won all but 4 of the precincts, tied in one, and one had 0 votes (sad but true).

I don’t think anyone predicted a 34 point win, but with decisive victories in both the early vote and Election Day, I am optimistic that Bolton will be able to beat Republican nominee Bill Welch because she has already won twice as the underdog. She put together an effective campaign with less money and a strong field program against Earle who has a popular father, strong name ID, and recent family victory with the resignation of Tom DeLay. Yesterday none of that mattered and I see Austin being completely blue after November.

In Houston, Borris Miles upset incumbent Al Edwards. This was a race that proves the point that people are tired of the do-nothing legislature. Edwards authored the fewest bills in the house and was non-responsive to his district. Like the Frank Madla race in SD 19, Edwards was complacent because he hadn’t been challenged in a while, and Miles was able to capitalize on the disdain for the legislature and provide a strong message of change. Congrats to Greg Wythe and HERA on the campaign.

Finally San Antonio and the Republican race for HD 118. With a little over 1,000 votes cast, George Antuna will face Joe Farias in November. This is a must hold seat for Bexar county and the Texas Democratic party. It will be targeted by both parties and should be fun to watch. I predict a win for Farias now, but we are still 7 months out and anything can happen.

Here are the links for complete result on the Republican and Democratic run off.


Post a Comment

<< Home