Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Time to Stick My Neck Out

There is something to be said about predicting winners, but the problem is there is something to be said when you are flat out wrong.

Let's start with the top of the ticket:

US Senate
Barbara Radnofsky is going to take it because she will over perform in the major, urban and that will be the ball game.

Lt Gov
Hard one to call, but I am going to say Maria Alvarado wins by two points. This is really a matter of turnout only. Ben Grant will do well in North and East Texas but Alvarado will do well in West Texas in the Valley. I predict San Antonio and El Paso along with Houston for Alvarado and Dallas, Austin the panhandle for Grant.

State House Districts:

HD 42
Richard Raymond will win easily. He was 32 votes away last time, and he campaigns well.

HD 47
Valinda Bolton will win by a dozen or so votes. She out performed in March and people need to remember to get out there again, but women do well in the district and with DeLay going on the offensive against the Earle family, Jason Earle's electability in November has to be called into question.

HD 146
Another close one. I am rooting for Boris Miles, but if he does it will be an upset. Even though Al Edwards has lost touch with his district and never legislates on anything except sexy cheerleading, he is still an incumbent. I think Miles will do it, and win by 2 points.


At 10:24 PM, Anonymous Demosthenes said...

Well done.

I don't know how the numbers spread out per region, but the San antonio figures for Alvarado don't seem to be all that far off the mark for Texas as a whole. She did only 3% better here than in the entire state.
Compare that to the difference in the Radnofsky race: San Antonio does better for her than the rest of the state does by 21.15% (as of the counts at this moment).

Sifting through these numbers is going to be insteresting. Right now, it doesn't seem to make sense.

Could it be the Express-News endorsement?


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