Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Carlos Uresti for Senate District 19- Live Blog!

I just walked into the campaign office and I was amazed by the amount of people on the ground. Living up in the north side means being totally devoid of competitive primaries, but here there are signs and volunteers every where. Rodriguez and Uresti supporters are filling the streets and there has been a steady stream of people already.

I am going to get situated and start posting, but in case you haven’t voted yet, Eddie has the best thing for you to see.

Update 4:25 pm:
We are quickly moving into the final stretch. It has been speculated that turnout out will be lower this year than the last primary, and that's true. We are seeing a universal decrease in turnout at this point.

It is hard to tell at this point why and who that helps, but now the campaign is in full knock in drag mode. I have said this phrase twice, so it is important to know what that means. Knock in drag is another term for a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) activity. This is when you have teams of people knocking on doors and literally taking supporters immediately to go vote. This is the best way to ensure that people are voting on election day.

The Uresti camp is also stepping up visibility efforts in targeted areas to ensure that people feel like party of the "celebration". I can't critique the GOTV efforts here because they have been effective and well managed.

Update 3:04 pm:
The sun is breaking through the clouds now and it is getting hot, at least to hot to walk for long. I just got back from hitting the pavement for a little while and so far only the Rodriguez campaign and Uresti's campaign have put together a ground game. Madla has some groups of 5 to 9 people in certain polling locations but Rodriguez and Uresti have nearly all of the locations covered. I haven't seen anyone walking like the Uresti or Rodriguez camps, and Uresti has a group on the phones too.

It is clear that they are not taking for granted Bexar county, unlike some elected incumbents who's name may begin with "F" and end with "rank Madla".

The numbers are looking pretty good and the campaign is inching to the magic number. I am predicting near 50,000 votes for the entire county, and around 2/3 of that coming from central city and south. This is still well low of the 2002 and 2004 numbers. Then again, these two races are probably two of the more heated throughout the entire state.

The goal for the final few hours is to pump up the numbers inside the loop and if that happens say hello Senator Uresti?

Update 10:26 am:
First round numbers are still coming in and they look pretty good. Voters tend to come out before work, at lunch, and then in mass after work, but right now turnout is highest in the Uresti targets.

Right now the highest turnout areas are Uresti’s backyard, but they aren’t nearly as high as they should be, and the weather looks like rain so there is an impressive “knock and drag” effort going.

The internal numbers I have heard saw Uresti up a couple of points in the 3 day out poll, but the poll is not outside the margin of error. The scary thing is that the undecided number is around 20%.

It is still anybody’s race here in SD 19.

UPDATE 9:28 am:
The first round numbers are starting to trickle in and the campaign is already getting reports of some foul play by the Madla campaign.

From multiple reports, Frank Madla has called Ruben Tejeda and the constable’s office to demand that they go around to in school polling locations and ask Uresti volunteers to remove T-shirts and other campaign apparel.

The requirement is that all campaign stops if it is within 100 feet of the voting location. Today however, the Uresti campaign is not being allowed to do anything but pass out fliers in some areas.


At 3:07 PM, Blogger P.M.Bryant said...

Perhaps the apparent low turnout is due to the increase in early voting. Or do the numbers not add up?

I've always been suspicious about early reports about turnout. From what I've seen, they frequently end up wrong.

At 3:52 PM, Blogger Matt Glazer said...

they seem to be generally trending lower than previous years, but we won't know anything for another hour.


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