The Big Game

So tomorrow is the big day. It’s Primary Day! Soon we will know who our nominees are and who will champion the Democratic agenda.

Of course everyone will be paying attention to Gammage vs. Bell, but there are some other important races to watch tomorrow night. Let’s start at the top.

For Congress, the most important one to watch is Congressional District 22. People are all counting on it to be Tom DeLay vs Nick Lampson, but there is a chance that DeLay will lose in the primary. DeLay has never worked this hard to simply be the nominee, but with an approval rating in the low to mid 30’s, turnout is the only thing that matters.

The other congressional race to watch is CD-28. Until Cuellar received the Club for Growth endorsement and was kissed by Bush during the State of the Union, Cuellar was out raising, out spending, and out campaigning Rodriguez. After those two huge missteps by the campaign, Rodriguez has come on strong. The problem is San Antonio. If people don’t turn out in mass, Cuellar will win his base in Laredo/Webb County and stay in Congress.

Let’s run down to the State House next. There are a lot of interesting primary races to watch here. First, House District 118. This is a wide open seat and the real match up is Larry Ricketts versus Joe Farias. This is Carlos Uresti’s former seat and has been trending more Republican over the years. This is a must win seat for the Democrats in order to continue to net seats in the house.

House District 47 in Austin is another one to watch. The Valinda Bolton, Jason Earle match-up can be summed up as the battle of, “No, I am more electable”. Bolton and Earle have very similar platforms, but Bolton has more experience and a last name that won’t serve as a lightening rod in November. There is a HUGE possibility of a run-off and that could favor or hurt either Bolton or Earle. The real question here is, who can make Austin completely blue?

Next is the Leininger 5. All of these races are interesting in the sense that even if the Democrats net 3, if Leininger buys 5 seats and shifts them further to the radical end of the Republican Party, then the next legislative session will still be a very defensive session for most progressive groups, teachers, students, those that need health care, and Democrats. In particular I am watching the Kent Grusendforf/Diane Patrick race and the Carter Casteel/Nathan Macias race.

Finally Senate District 19. Until a week ago, this was a toss up. Now it should be clear as day. Carlos Uresti is a good candidate, Frank Madla has done illegal stuff and has put the Democrats in his trunk. You have to watch this because we have to hold our ground in the Senate and stop the long term bleeding that Democrats have suffered.

The Houston Chronicle is interested in these races too. There are other races of interest too, but I will leave that to you to discuss.