Thursday, May 26, 2005

San Antonio Mayor Race Heating Up

I have been holding off on this post to see what Schubert was going to do with his endorsement. I was predicting an election week endorsement for Hardberger so that his name would be in the paper just a little more during GOTV.

I was wrong. The Express-News has the full article here and I encourage you to read the FULL text.

The endorsement comes at a bad time. Nobody is surprised by Schubert throwing his northside support toward Hardberger. Hardberger is going to take Districts 8, 9, and 10, and if anyone tells you otherwise they are kidding themselves.

Castro will take 1-7. The problem is that Castro's base is far less likely to vote, and one of the few things he has going for him is the runoffs in 6 and 7.

Those are things we all know and agree on. Here is the real speculation. Castro is going to win on June 7th though and here are the reasons why:

1) Castro is now on the attack. The fun part about being the "under dog" is that you can go offensive. Castro's message is becoming more clear and more pointed:
"This won't change the dynamics of the race," Castro said. "There's a small insider group of lobbyists and developers who want to control City Hall. Carroll Schubert was their first choice and Phil Hardberger is their back-up plan. I'm going to be an independent voice for all of San Antonio."
2) Castro is in the margin, but far enough behind to scare his base to vote. The Survey USA poll
is going to mobilize for Castro's people because they will feel like they have to vote in order to get there guys in. The timing of the endorsement, only days after the poll, seems to validate Castro's attack on those supporters of Hardberger.

3) It has been said once and it will be said again... the runoff will only help Castro. Those voting for Delicia Herrera and Elena Guajardo will vote for Julian Castro. Those the turn out for Ray Lopez will break about 65% for Castro and those that vote for Noel Suniga about 50:50. This neutralizes some of the northside threat for Julian.

My predication stand that on June 7th we will be celebrating victories for Castro, Lopez, and Guajardo. Castro and Lopez will squeak by and Guajardo will win in a landslide.


At 4:41 PM, Blogger Mike Cable said...

I hope you're right. A triple slam like that might wake up both parties to the potential of Latino voters--the future of the Democratic Party in Texas.

At 7:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is great analysis of the race...I do think the close margin will galvanize castro's base and get them out to vote. It's different when you have a three man race, where everything is muddled.

The runoffs will also generate higher than normal turnout as well.

What will be interesting to see is the impact of Hardberger's overturning of molesters and murderers convictions. I think it's quite likely to sway independents and very conservative voters away from hardberger, or away from the polls.

Great posting though! keep up the good work...

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