Monday, May 09, 2005

Post Election Analysis

Congrats to those that won on Saturday and I am in awe of The Red State, The Jeffersonian, and Burnt Orange Report on their amazing job posting through out the day.

The San Antonio election cycle was incredibly interesting and Julian Castro and Ray Lopez need to be afraid. Very afraid. There are three contested races left for June 7th and two of them are a toss up.

Julian Castro pulled an impressive 42% of the vote, and won both early vote and Election Day vote. The real story though, is Phil Hardberger. Hardberger pulled a total of 34,280 votes, Castro received 47,893. Why then should Castro be so nervous? Castro is maxed out. It is doubtful that any of the second tier candidates will have their supporters turn out again, and Schubert’s supporters are not going to vote Castro if they vote at all. So, Phil Hardberger becomes the story and the man to watch. Unless T.J. Connolly and crew can put together a positive campaign that still chips away at Hardberger’s legitimacy, Phil Hardberger will win on June 7th.

Hardberger will win districts 8, 9, and 10 (especially with Art Hall not going to run off). The one thing that helps Castro is that 6 and 7 are both in runoff and Patti Radle reins supreme in district 5. However this won’t be enough. Castro needs Districts 1 and 3 to turn out for him to have a prayer, and I don’t see that happening.

District 6 on the other hand turned ugly quick on Election Day. I predicted a tight Lopez/Romo race, and I was wrong. My guy, Ray Lopez, needs to be afraid too. Delicia Herrera is coming on fast and strong. Ray won both early vote and Election Day and had 2,855 people vote him. Delicia on the hand lost early vote but won HUGE on Election Day and 2,107 people vote for her.

Be afraid, be very afraid. District 6 is now an endorsement and GOTV game. I believe that Ray will win the former but Delicia will win the latter. This is going to be a tight race and very fun to watch.

As for district 7, I thought Cynthia Test might sneak in and get to the run off with Elena Guajardo, but I had no idea she would get so close. This proves what the Jeffersonian has said; Noel will have to explain his Republican past in a district that is nearly 60% Democrat. I honestly think that Elena Guajardo has done the hard part, and she will win on June 7th with about 65% of the vote.


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