Friday, May 06, 2005

Election Day predictions

With the election being less than a day away I wanted to give some predictions on how I think it will turn out.

Julian Castro is going to get close to winning it tomorrow, but he is going to miss it by a few hundred votes. Prop 1 is going to help him and so is a highly contested race in 6, but with a conservative group in 7 running and nobody in 1. I think he misses it. Sadly, I think Hardberger wins the whole thing, and does it in the run-off by running right and grabbing some Schubert supporters. Unless of course Julian can get his base to turn out twice, but I think that is unlikely.

Prop 1:
Prop 1 will pass if and only if people turn out in districts 1 and 5 to vote for Julian. The campaign for Prop 1 has been lacking and overly focused on districts 8, 9, and 10. This is an interesting strategy because districts 1, 5, 6, and 7 are the districts with the base to vote for it. 6 and 7 will dramatically increase the amount of people voting for Prop 1, but they will not carry it. Districts 8, 9, and 10 are the districts that support Prop 3, and supporters of Prop 3 are much less likely to vote yes to Prop 1. So those pulling from Prop 1 better tell there pals in Districts 1 and 5 to go vote for mayor or there is no way it will pass.

Prop 2:
However Prop 1 goes, so then does Prop 2.

Prop 3:
Prop 3 will pass entirely because of Districts 8, 9, and 10 and the fact that a lot of people in the south and west side of town are pissed because of increase property taxes from bonds and property tax hikes.

For the actual City Council races I am only going over the ones that are exciting or that I care about.

District 3:
I agree with The Jeffersonian, Roland Guitierrez is going to pull off an upset and take it. His ground game is too good, and Segovia is too confident.

District 6:
I believe that Ray Lopez can win this on the 7th like Enrique Barrera did 4 years ago. He is competitive in every precinct and none of the other 7 candidates are. If he doesn't win it outright it will be Lopez vs. Romo and Lopez will win. He has too much money coming in, to many people lined up to endorse him, and a diverse and effective ground game.

District 7:
I like watching this race. There are a lot of candidates here like in District 6, but all of them are running about even unlike 6. I think Test could surprise, but I doubt it. Really this is a contest between Noel Suniga and Elena Guajardo, and on June 7th it will be Elena Guajardo is thanking her supporter on her victory.

District 8:
Art Hall will go to a run-off. Keough is running a negative but smart campaign. However, this is going to backfire and simply suppress voter turn out in the run-off. That is when name recognition and a strong incumbency factor will pay off. Art Hall will win on June 7th, but this should be a signal to him to either listen to his district or find another career in 2 years.

District 9:
Kevin Wolff has name recognition and tons of money. Enough said.

District 10:
Chip Haass now in San Antonio for city council, and next year he takes on Lamar Smith in the TX-21.

There it is. I am betting on a run-off for mayor, and districts 6, 7, and 8. Anyone want to take bets?


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