Wednesday, June 08, 2005

How Did It Happen?

How did Julian Castro lose and Delicia Herrera win? What stars aligned to give Hardberger such an amazing early vote and a poor election day showing? And the most important question, what does this all mean for San Antonio?

Julian Castro lost last night because he was too concerned about polling numbers and looking like the next Mayor of San Antonio. Julian was perceived as part of the establishment in city government and that worked against him and Schubert. This in conjunction with Hardbergers amazing ability to get endorsements that were tailed directly at neutralizing Castro meant certain defeat for the former city council member. Rev Claude Black in district 2 neutralized Castro and shifted focus to district 1. Susan Reeds endorsement neutralized districts 3, 4, and 6 because of rising crime. Schuberts endorsement locked the northside. These three endorsements alone won the campaign for Hardberger.

Hardberger ran a smart and well organized campaign and that is what made him win. He targeted the right districts and endorsements, and he fulfilled his obligations. Castro had to win districts 1, 5, 6, and 7 huge and take early vote and he only did one of those things. That is why today we are saying Mayor-elect Hardberger and asking what is next for Castro.

Castro will need to stay in the public arena by becoming county chair for the Democrats, doing high profile legal cases, or being involved in a series of issues around the city. Castro has one more shot to win or he will lose his rising star status completely. The narrow lose to Hardberger will mean that nobody will hold it against him, but a second loss means he will be tagged for future runs.

The city council races are a different story. Instead of talking about how Ray Lopez loss, we must focus on how Delicia Herrera won. Delicia had over 300 volunteers, she blockwalked more than Ray Lopez did during the whole campaign, and she was running a campaign with an "open door policy with an open mind philosophy". She won because people want optimism, vision, and a new voice and council. The same strike against Castro for being in city council went against Ray Lopez and worked for Delicia and Elena.

Grassroots power won big last night and I am excited to see the direction that the new mayor and council take our city.


At 9:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Matt, no offense man, I know this is kind of a late post so I don't know if you're going to see it, but you are full of shit. You honestly have no idea what happened in this race, because if you think that Susan Reed's endorsement solidified any support in Latino areas you are straight up kidding yourself. If you really want to know why Julian lost it was because the campaign put too high of a priority on northside voters. If they had spent some of the TV commercial money on field operations in the South and West sides of the city then he would be our Mayor now. Also, nobody expected Castro to win the early vote, nor was it ever a possibility especially since roughly 55-60 percent of white voters (which are bunched on the northside) tend to vote early. Hispanic voters are the exact opposite, which meant that the e-day operation for Castro's campaign was about as effective as it could have been. Either way, I mean no offense by any of this, just try and consult someone who actually understands the politics of the city before you mouth off about it. Also, while Chip Haas is a Democrat district 10 a VERY Republican area... just thought you might like to know


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